CLOSE IN OHIO – AT 10:46 A.M. ET:  A new NBC/Marist poll shows Ohio Governor John Kasich leading Donald Trump in Tuesday's Ohio primary, but Trump romping in Florida and leading in Illinois.  Hillary is ahead in all three states, with Illinois close.  From  NBC News: 

Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential field in the March 15 primary states of Florida and Illinois, while John Kasich holds the edge in his home state of Ohio, according to three new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

On the Democratic side, meanwhile, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders in all three states, although she's just narrowly ahead in Illinois.

In Florida, Trump holds a 2-to-1 advantage among likely GOP voters over Marco Rubio, the state's U.S. senator, 43 percent to 22 percent. They're followed by Ted Cruz at 21 percent and John Kasich at 9 percent.

In Illinois, Trump gets the support of 34 percent of likely GOP primary voters, Cruz gets 25 percent, Kasich gets 21 percent and Rubio gets 16 percent.

But in Ohio, Kasich, the state's incumbent governor, holds a six-point lead over Trump, 39 percent to 33 percent - followed by Cruz at 19 percent and Rubio at 6 percent.

In the Democratic race, Clinton is ahead of Sanders among likely primary voters by 27 points in Florida, 61 percent to 34 percent; by 20 points in Ohio, 58 percent to 38 percent; but by just six points in Illinois, 51 percent to 45 percent.

COMMENT:  Let's say these numbers hold.  Trump can claim major victories in Florida and Illinois, but a loss in Ohio will prevent him from claiming total victory.  He will still be well ahead for the nomination, and will have knocked Rubio out of the race in Florida.  But he'll still have to fight Cruz.  The numbers even give Cruz a fighting chance in Illinois, if – a big if – Trump has been hurt by the disrupted rally on Friday night.  Also, notice that Trump never reaches 50%, and is only in the 30s in Illinois and Ohio. 

On the Dem side, it would take major miracles for Sanders to catch Hillary in either Florida or Ohio, but he might upset Hillary in her home state of Illinois.  The result?  He gets some bragging rights, but little more.  Hillary would continue her delegate count to the nomination, with the FBI her real opponent.  She gets over 50% in all three states.

March 13,  2016